Last week I came across World Population Prospects, a publication of the World Bank which forecast the world’s population in 2100. I was astounded to note that by that year Tanzania’s population would reach 353,512,977 under a high-fertility scenario, 262,834,722 under a medium-fertility scenario and 190,719,754 under a low-fertility scenario. The most widely accepted estimate places Tanzania’s population at around 263 million by 2100.
Is this a time bomb? Should this worry us? In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich published a book titled The Population Bomb, which warned that the population explosion was imminent. It is quite clear that the bomb he predicted has already gone off. I disagree with the author because I view a large population as an asset rather than a liability. Mwalimu Julius Nyerere once said: “The greatest wealth of any nation is its people. Development comes not from things but from people, and their education, organisation and discipline.” Similarly, Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, stated: “The world’s problem is not too many people, but a lack of political and economic will to give all people the decent life they deserve.”
This growth represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Harnessed effectively, it can provide a demographic dividend that fuels economic dynamism. Mismanaged, it risks overwhelming resources, services and governance systems. For this reason, our planners must begin deliberate long-term planning now.
Several key factors deserve attention. The first is urbanisation and settlement planning. By 2100, more than 70% of Tanzanians are expected to live in cities, compared to less than 40% today. Land-use planning must recognise that mass transportation systems, waste management and social services will be required to cater for the larger urban population.
Feeding a population that nearly quadruples in less than a century will require transforming agriculture, so that the 30% of people living in rural areas can sustain the 70% living in urban centres. Productivity must rise through modern irrigation, mechanisation, and the adoption of high-yield crops. Population growth will multiply demand for clean water, energy and raw materials. River basins and groundwater sources should be protected today to secure the future. New sources of energy such as solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear must be explored.
As noted earlier, a large population is only an asset if it is healthy, skilled and productively engaged. Emphasis on STEM, ICT and green-economy skills will prepare the workforce for future industries. Population pressure will also test governance systems. Strong institutions, well-managed local governments, and digitalised public services will be essential to manage land, taxation, health and education efficiently.
In conclusion, by 2100 Tanzania will be among the world’s most populous countries. Early preparation—through planned urbanisation, sustainable agriculture, resource management, human-capital investment, and good governance—will determine whether this growth becomes a liability or a dividend. The choices made today will shape the lives of hundreds of millions of Tanzanians in the century to come.
