News emerged earlier this week that the Partner States of the East African Community (EAC) had recorded their first-ever trade surplus of $840 million with the rest of the world. This surplus occurred in the quarter ending March 2025, driven mostly by a surge in exports to China. Much euphoria followed this development, with some suggesting that we should now pivot our external trade strategy towards the East rather than the West.
I disagree with this view. Instead, I urge that African countries should prioritise intra-African trade as a strategic pathway to inclusive development, industrialisation and resilience. Historically, Africa’s trade has been heavily skewed towards external markets. According to the Africa Trade Report 2024, only about 15% of Africa’s trade in 2023 occurred within the continent, with the remainder conducted with partners in Europe, Asia and North America.
This external focus has entrenched Africa in a cycle of exporting raw materials and importing finished goods—stifling industrial growth. In contrast, intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a platform for value addition, diversification and the development of regional value chains.
One of the key advantages of focusing on intra-African trade is its potential to boost industrialisation. Trade within Africa is more likely to involve manufactured and semi-processed goods, unlike exports to China or the EU, which are dominated by raw commodities. By trading regionally, African countries can support local industries, encourage technology transfer, and create employment. For instance, a textile producer in Tanzania could source cotton from Benin, process it locally and export garments in Namibia—thereby circulating value within the continent.
From a strategic standpoint, regional trade enhances economic sovereignty and reduces dependency on global powers. Reliance on the West or East often comes with geopolitical strings attached and makes African economies vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions.
For example, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exposed the fragility of Africa’s external trade dependencies. By focusing on internal markets, Africa can better shield itself from external shocks and build a more self-reliant economic system.
The potential for intra-African trade is immense compared to the current trade volumes between EAC countries and the rest of the world. In 2023, exports by the EAC to the USA, EU and China were recorded at $1 billion, $2.54 billion, and $80 billion respectively.
According to World Bank projections, intra-African trade could exceed USD 200–300 billion annually by 2035. A long-term forecast suggests this figure could reach between USD 400–500 billion by 2045, depending on the pace of liberalisation and infrastructure development.
To summarise, while trade relations with global powers remain important, Africa’s long-term economic future lies in harnessing the potential of its own market. The AfCFTA provides the legal, economic and political foundation to make intra-African trade an engine of growth, resilience, and shared prosperity. Rather than looking East or West, Africa must first look inward.
Elly Manjale is an economic, business and management consultant based in Arusha who writes on economic, business, social and political issues
Email: emanjale@gmail.com.
