A VERY TURBULENT YEAR AHEAD

By Mboneko Munyaga

Few years in recent history have painted a grimmer image of both the present and future the way 2026 has. Most characteristic has been the rapidly changing world order that threatens to unravel old alliances many thought, were rock solid. Most notable was the open desire and almost aggressive stance by US President Donald Trump to acquire Greenland, “by force, if necessary,” from Denmark to beef up America’s security in the Arctic region. Trump claims Greenland, an autonomous region under Danish rule, was rapidly coming within both Russia and China’s influence, which America cannot tolerate. He has since recanted the use of force, saying America will “negotiate” instead.

Denmark and the US are founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) of mostly European countries formed in the aftermath of World War ll as a pact for mutual defence in case any was attacked from outside. For nearly a century now, NATO was seen as the bedrock of global peace as it was generally deemed that no one would be so naïve as to start a war and invite the combined wrath of Western armies. President Trump labels it burdensome to America from which it gets litte or close to nothing.

Europe, meanwhile, has demonstrated symbolic support for Denmark by sending troops to Greenland, indicating a clear crack in the alliance. Russian President, Vladimir Putin joked that Britain, arguably, Western Europe’s biggest power, “was sending James Bond to defend Greenland.” James Bond was a Cold War era fictional British spy character in novels and movies, including the blockbuster, “From Russia with Love,” in which Bond eloped with a female Russian spy sent to kill him.

In Washington, Trump responded by threatening to slap 10-per cent tariff on imports from eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland. Asked whether annexing Greenland would not hurt Danish investments in US Treasury Bonds, Treasury Secretary (Finance Minister), Scott Bessent responded by saying: “Denmark’s investment in US Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, was irrelevant.” The West had never seen worse cracks in its ranks.

Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that “the future of Greenland is only for the Greenlanders to decide,” warning that Europe needed to change the ways in which “we think and act … now that we live in a world defined by raw power.”

A serious rift was also registered between the UK’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer and President Trump, with the UK premier stating openly that he (Trump) wanted to pressure him concerning his Greenland annexation ambitions. Starmer said Britain’s position was that the future of Greenland rested with the Greenlanders themselves and the Kingdom of Denmark only.

Closer to home, Trump blasted the UK’s decision to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Island’s to Mauritius in a move intended to cement Britain’s hold onto their Diego Garcia military base in the archipelago, a move that was earlier agreed upon together with the US. But in open rebuttal, President Trump called the deal “stupid,” which Sir Keir interpreted as arm twisting to get him to agree on the Greenland deal.

In New York, speaking at the Security Council, China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Sun Lei, called on the international community to jointly prevent Japan from reverting to “the old and pernicious path of militarism,” worried more by Japan’s increased military spending and its policy over Taiwan.

In the ever-restive Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would be obliterated from the face of the earth if it ever attacked the Jewish state again, leaving some observers worried that Israel could start a nuclear war.

In Africa, conflicts were mostly internal, largely as bad fallout from disputed elections and a year likely to experience food shortage given prolonged hot conditions as weather remained mostly unpredictable.

Thus, as we ring in 2026, it is like the world is witnessing a new scramble, not for Africa, but for geopolitically strategic areas, which includes Israel’s recognition of breakaway Somaliland’s sovereignty.

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