In roughly a month this year, US President, Donald Trump was lectured by leaders from the West and East, on the importance and imperatives of shared values and peaceful co-existence with both the old allies and a rising challenger.
King Charles lll’s address to a joint meeting of the US Congress last April, was billed as a masterpiece of diplomatic hard truths wrapped in soft power language that nonetheless, left no gaps for gaffing.
Then during a state visit to China this month, President Xi Jinping casually referenced on the need for America and China to avoid war by asking whether the two countries could escape the “Thucydides Trap.”
The “Thucydides Trap” theory was made popular by Harvard University Professor, Graham Allison, in 2016 to refer to the growing rivalry between America and China through analysing the history of the war between Athens and Sparta, 400 years before the birth of Jesus that lasted 30 years. The war ended with the defeat of Sparta (read America) that had feared the rise of Athens (read China) in ancient Greece.
Thus, in diplomatic parlance, where every word is carefully scripted and considered, Xi told the visiting American President, in very clear language, that China was ready for peaceful co-existence but also was ready for war if that trajectory became inevitable even though both parties did not desire it. Xi hosted President Barack Obama in 2016. The language was not so blunt then.
War between America and China would inevitably be world war. It won’t last 30 years as the war between Sparta and Athens did but its consequences would reshape world history for decades, or even centuries to come.
In the event of World War lll, Africa, or to be precise, East Africa as the world’s navel, would most likely find itself at centre stage. There is no way East Africa would be neutral. Naval activity would most likely be concentrated in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with the Red Sea a crucial battlefield for the control of oil resources and supply routes.
During the ancient and medieval wars, Africa south of the Sahara was almost like non-existent. But in any global conflict now, Eastern Africa in particular and Africa in general, hold the trump card for victory. That is why, when the drums of war sound in east or west, Africa has every reason to be extremely worried.
Currently, Africans are busy fighting each other in their petty conflicts. A global conflagration won’t care about their internal instabilities. The region would most likely be occupied, or made to choose sides. That is the tragedy of Africa even as it courts friendship with both east and west.
President Obama visited China twice, in 2009 and 2016. The “doubtful friendship” had never eased but it would appear, America was the undisputed Superpower then. That gap is disappearing very fast and Africa would better take note.