BY SUKHDEV CHHATBAR
East African countries have been warned to take measures to strengthen preparedness for adverse weather conditions, as leading climate centres predict that El Niño patterns were likely to develop in 2026 and bring disruptive rainfall later in the year.
The World Meteorological Organisation said there was high likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with the event likely to continue into the final months of the year.
Other major climate centres, including NOAA and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, have also indicated a strong possibility for El Niño conditions.
For Tanzania and other East African countries, the main concern is during the October to December short rains when heavier than usual rains in parts of the region could occur, raising the risks of flooding, damaged roads, crop losses, landslides and outbreaks of water-borne diseases.
However, scientists caution that El Niño does not affect all areas in the same way. Some places may receive excessive rainfall, while others may still experience dry spells, depending on local conditions and other climate systems.
Climate experts have advised governments, farmers and communities to follow carefully updated weather forecasts from national meteorological agencies and regional centres such as ICPAC.
Authorities are also being urged to improve drainage, protect vulnerable settlements, issue timely farming advisories and prepare emergency response systems. While some reports have warned of possible “super El Niño” conditions, official agencies say it was still too early to conclude that 2026 will be the worst year on record.
