BY MBONEKO MUNYAGA
Elders have warned people not to ignore the weather forecast announced by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), which earlier predicted normal to above-normal downpours during the coming short-rains season.
According to TMA, most areas along the coast, the northern zone and the Lake Victoria Basin will experience El Niño-related rainfall beginning this October, which could cause disasters. However, some people have expressed scepticism, owing to the continuing very hot atmospheric conditions and clear skies that hardly show any signs of impending heavy rainfall.
“According to my experience and knowledge passed down from our ancestors, extremely hot and dry conditions just before the short rains are the right precursor to extremely heavy rains,” said Constantine Mulebo, 66, of Nkilizya village on Ukerewe Island.
He said he had personally experienced such climatic extremes, whereby very hot conditions were followed by above-normal rainfall.
From Dar es Salaam, Imelder Sanga, who runs a primary school and day-care centre at Mbagala, which is prone to flooding, said they had taken the necessary precautions to ensure the safety of the children. These included informing them that the authorities had predicted unusually heavy rains this season and warning them not to play in the rain, as they usually find it fun and enjoyable.
Mr Kidon Mkuu, Coordinator of the Arusha-based Wildlife and Environmental Care Initiative (WECI), said El Niño was certainly coming. Even as he spoke, he said, Arusha was experiencing unusually strong winds, which he said were an indication that the pending rains would be equally heavy.
“People should learn to respect scientific knowledge. TMA are not just scaring people, but have warned them based on scientific information that they have been able to gather according to their expertise,” he said.
Following the preparedness warning issued by TMA, The Arusha News encountered naysayers who argued strongly that accurately predicting the weather was beyond the powers of human beings, as only God could control the elements and their intensity, turning a matter of scientific knowledge into a debate about faith and religion.
The environment was all that mattered, Mr Mkuu said, adding: “Those who doubt global warming, for example, even in developed countries, do not wish us all well.”
Tanzania recorded one of its strongest El Niño episodes during the 1997/98 season, which was preceded by similarly strong rains in 1982/83, about 15 years earlier. Since then, however, the El Niño phenomenon has become more frequent, including in 2015/16 and more recently, in 2023/24, when heavy rainfall peaked in April 2024, causing widespread damage and flooding.
